Will Poland grow faster than China in 2022? The latest OECD forecasts are surprising

According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, in 2022 we will see a decrease in the dynamics of global growth from 5.6 percent to 4.5 percent. However, the global economy will continue to grow at twice the rate of the average in the past ten years. According to the same forecast, the Polish economy will grow faster than the Chinese economy next year.

The OECD economic growth forecast presented on December 1 predicts that Poland’s GDP will rise by 5.3% in 2021. The following year, the slowdown will be minimal and growth will reach 5.2%. The European Commission’s forecast for Poland expects an increase of 4.9%. in 2021 and by 5.2 percent. in 2022. However, the OECD forecast appears to be more realistic in the context of third-quarter GDP growth, which stood at 5.3%. y/o

Economic growth forecasts for selected countries in 2021 and 2022.

Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development

Forecasts predict that around the world we will have to deal with declining dynamics of GDP growth – from 5.6 per cent. In the current year to 4.5 percent. in 2022

A slowdown in growth will occur virtually in all major economies of the world. It will weaken growth in India, the fastest growing among the major economies, from 9.4%. It reaches 8.1% in Great Britain 6.9%. to 4.7%, and similarly in the euro area there will be a decrease from 5.2 to 4.3%. The proportion is expected to be even higher in the United States – from 5.6 per cent. By 3.7 percent

The Chinese economy will also slow from 8.1 percent. It is expected at the end of this year that it will reach 5.1 percent. the following

This means that, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the Polish economy will grow faster than the Chinese economy in annual terms. If these forecasts come true, this will be the first case of its kind since the beginning of the 1990s, that is, given that we have reliable data on Poland’s GDP. Of course, we should not forget that China’s GDP is highly dependent on central planning and government.

GDP growth forecast for OECD countries is at 4.5%. For the next year, it has not changed in the past three months, despite the growing global risk of a pandemic

In this context, the consensus is that the results of listed companies in the world will increase by 7%. It seems understated. Global inflation is currently peaking at 5%. It will start falling soon. Global interest rates will slowly rise from the current low levels and this will help assets such as commodities and stocks.