The conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Commentary by Jerzy Marek Nowakowski and Rysard Schnepf

Russia collecting soldiers Near the borders with Ukraine and Belarus. Diplomacy in progress High Level ConversationsTo prevent escalation. On Tuesday, the Russian Defense Ministry said that some Russian forces had completed maneuvers near the Ukrainian border Back to the rules. According to the statement, these will be from some forces of the Southern and Western Military District. Kiev is skeptical. “We will believe in de-escalation only when we see the withdrawal of forces with our own eyes,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said.

The situation in Ukraine was discussed in “Tak jest” on TVN24 by Jerzy Marek Nowakowski of the Euro-Atlantic Association, former Polish ambassador to Latvia and Armenia, and Ryszard Schnepf, diplomat, former Polish ambassador to Washington.

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Nowakovsky stated that the withdrawal of Russian forces was “largely an illusion”. – I would like to remind you that in the spring of last year there was also a similar escalation, only on the border with Ukraine there were tens of thousands of soldiers, and not a hundred, who were then withdrawn, and the equipment remained, [zostawiono – red.] Some rules set. So I think this is a Russian idea of ​​having a long-running tension that would overwhelm everyone — he continued.

– The Russian logic is as follows: We will maintain this tension, we will raise it and lower it a little bit until they start looking for someone in Ukraine who is compatible with us. This is what we want – to mitigate and destroy this pro-Western trend in Ukraine – said Novakovsky.

Richard Schnepf said he would not have “too much confidence in what Putin or Lavrov would say about de-escalation and troop withdrawal.” – He said that the tension will continue because it is in the hands of Russia, which maintains uncertainty in Ukraine.

– We are seeing many analyzes and plans. This is where he applies the mantra of famous boxer Mike Tyson, who said: Everyone has their own plans until they get the first punch in the jaw. Then all plans change. “So it is not known what will happen until the end, but there is certainly a diplomatic track open for talks,” the former ambassador added.

The weather seems to be a little better. It is clear that the Russian side has now reached the point where the attack actually remains, and this may not be Putin’s real plan. More like to say it [jest nim – red.] Define a new global security architecture. In a sense, Russia has already achieved this, because it is talking to the President of the United States, and we are witnessing the pilgrimage of key European decision-makers – from Berlin, Paris and London – all coming to Moscow – she told TVN24 visitor.