Renewing the lockdown for everyone would cause four times more financial losses than excluding people who are not immune, according to an analysis by the Institute for Economic Research. Leibniz (RWI), about which the daily “Handelsblatt” writes. According to these calculations, subsequent epidemiological restrictions will cost (depending on their type) from 6.5 to 52 billion euro Value Added.
The restrictions will mainly affect companies that provide services in which it is impossible to avoid contact with other people, such as restaurants, tourismculture and art.
RWI scientists have calculated how much damage would be caused by various partial closures in this region if they were introduced in the fourth quarter of 2021 and continued throughout the first quarter of 2022.
full closure
Therefore, the damage in the event of a shutdown affects the entire population German, will amount to 52 billion euros. GDP will fall by 0.6 percentage points in 2022. The comparable value is a non-closed scenario, in which businesses benefit from above-average demand as residents attend concerts or trips.
Insurance for the unvaccinated
If only unvaccinated people were denied access (allowing those recovered and vaccinated to enter), the added value would be €13 billion less. However, assuming the current vaccination rate is maintained and the purchasing power of individuals is maintained to feed And the unvaccinated is the same, GDP will be 0.15 percentage point lower.
Access, but with the test
There is also a third variable, which assumes that unvaccinated people can access certain services based on a negative test result. Then the economic impact depends primarily on the prices These tests.
If half of the unvaccinated were able to continue to use services that include contact with others on a test basis, the added value would be €6.5 billion less, the decrease PKB It was 0.075 percentage points.
(AFP/DOM)
