According to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the British economy in May 2022 recorded 0.5%. m/m rebound increase by 0.2%. Fall in April. This result is much better than the average forecast, which assumed an increase in the range from 0.0 to 0.1 percent.
Also, compared to May 2021, the reading turned out to be higher than expected (3.5 vs. 2.8%), but in this case the slowdown in the growth dynamics was noticeable, since in April it was 3.7%. After the correction of 3.4 percent.
It is worth emphasizing that industrial and construction production grew faster than expected. The economy was also driven by the service sector, where health was at the fore. The Office for National Statistics confirmed that visits to family physicians increased by up to 15% in May.
However, there were also some disturbing factors. These, for example, are signs of poor household spending. Consumer-oriented services, including hospitality and retail, were down 0.1%.
Households spend less in stores and “on the go,” with official data showing 0.5 percent. in retail and 5.3 percent. Retreat in sports, leisure and recreational activities.
The Bank of England expects a contraction in the British economy in the second and fourth quarters of this year, followed by two years of recession. GDP is now 1.7%. above pre-pandemic levels.
Recent surveys also show that the risk of a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 45%. And three times higher than expected in early 2022.
