Good morning, and welcome to our renewed coverage of the global economy, financial markets, the eurozone, and business.
Inflation In the UK it slowed sharply last month, weighed by lower clothing prices amid a rally in Black Friday sales last month.
The Consumer Price Index rose just 0.3% in the 12 months to November, down from 0.7% in October, according to the Office for National Statistics reports.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages have also driven down the cost of living last month, the Office for National Statistics adds, while accommodation prices and some games have gone up.
It says:
- Lower prices for clothing, food, and non-alcoholic beverages led to the largest downward contributions (0.17 and 0.09 percentage points respectively) to the change in the 12-month CPIH inflation between October and November 2020.
- This has been partly compensated for by increasing contributions from games, games, hobbies and accommodation services.
Clothing prices were a major cause of lower inflation last month, the Office for National Statistics says, with clothing and footwear prices down 2.6% in November compared to October.
He points to the discount increase on Black Friday last month as retailers tried to increase sales, especially online, after a very difficult year.
ONS explains:
Prices overall fell 2.6% between October and November 2020, compared to a 1.0% rise between the same two months of last year. Usually prices rise between these two months, but price movements during 2020 were unusual compared to previous years and appear to be affected by the closure of the Corona virus.
The fall in prices in November of this year reflected the increased discount, and there were media reports that some Black Friday sales may have spread further throughout the month.
More details and feedback to follow …
Come on today too
A series of surveys of purchasing managers from the UK, the Eurozone, and the US will indicate how companies are performing this month.
These quick PMIs are likely to show that Britain’s private sector has returned to growth this month, after output slumped during England’s closure in November, with factories growing faster than service sectors.
The Eurozone economy may still be in contraction, as tighter restrictions are imposed to fight the second wave of Covid-19.
Michael Hewson From CMC Markets He explains:
The latest UK flash PMI is also expected to paint a slightly better picture of the UK economy after the slowdown in November, with improvements in both manufacturing and services, with manufacturing expected to remain somewhat resilient at 56, due to the inventory buildup component ahead of Brexit. The European Union, while services are expected to recover to 50.7, after re-opening the economy with the exit of the November restrictions.
The announcement of the extended lockdown for the likes of Germany and the Netherlands earlier this week, along with an extension of some restrictions in France, bodes poorly for the outlook for the largest economies in northern Europe over the next few weeks. Today’s flash PMI for manufacturing and services is expected to deepen that economic gloom, even as manufacturing continues to help offset the damage the services sector is doing.
The outlook was already bleak after extended restrictions announced at the start of November, in both France and Germany, as optimism about the summer recovery gave way to pessimism with a long dark winter.
Later on, the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, will hold its last meeting of the year.
schedule of work
- 9 am GMT: Eurozone PMI Light for Services and Manufacturing for December. It is expected to rise to 45.8 from 45.3, indicating a contraction.
- 9.30 am GMT: UK PMI Flash Services and Manufacturing for December. It is expected to rise to 53.1 from 49, indicating a return to growth
- 1.30 pm GMT: US retail sales for November. It is expected to decrease 0.3% MoM
- 2.45pm GMT: US PMI Flash for Services and Manufacturing for December. It is expected to decline to 55.7 from 56.7, which shows slower growth
- 7 p.m. GMT: The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting
- 7.30pm GMT: Federal Reserve press conference
